Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Santa Cruz, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Botafogo SP the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Vila Nova. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Botafogo SP (1,828) and Vila Nova (1,873).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botafogo SP have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Vila Nova have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Criciuma(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | São Bernardo(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Juventude(home) | 4-2 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ponte Preta(home) | 6-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sport Recife(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | CRB(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Botafogo SP win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Vila Nova win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Vila Nova 1-0 Botafogo SP | Serie B |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Botafogo SP 2-0 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Vila Nova 2-0 Botafogo SP | Serie B |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Vila Nova 1-1 Botafogo SP | Serie B |
| Jun 16, 2024 | Botafogo SP 1-0 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| Oct 12, 2023 | Vila Nova 3-1 Botafogo SP | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Vila Nova vs Botafogo SP on Jun 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Botafogo SP score 1.2 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Vila Nova score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP | 1.2 | 1.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Vila Nova | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botafogo SP sit 14th in Serie B (31 points from 23 matches) and Vila Nova sit 3rd (41 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Vila Nova | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 41 |
| 14 | Botafogo SP | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 23 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?
- The Footlab model makes Botafogo SP the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Vila Nova.
- Where and when is Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova played?
- Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova is played on October 3, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Santa Cruz, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.