Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Fortaleza, Ceará
The Footlab model makes Fortaleza EC the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Nautico Recife. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Fortaleza EC (1,942) and Nautico Recife (1,856).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fortaleza EC have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Nautico Recife have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Criciuma(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | São Bernardo(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cuiaba(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 3-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | São Bernardo(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ceara(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Criciuma(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 4 Fortaleza EC win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Nautico Recife win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Nautico Recife 0-1 Fortaleza EC | Serie B |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Fortaleza EC 2-1 Nautico Recife | Copa do Nordeste |
| Mar 26, 2022 | Fortaleza EC 2-0 Nautico Recife | Copa do Nordeste |
| Feb 12, 2022 | Nautico Recife 2-2 Fortaleza EC | Copa do Nordeste |
| Mar 14, 2020 | Nautico Recife 0-3 Fortaleza EC | Copa do Nordeste |
Last archived meeting: Nautico Recife vs Fortaleza EC on Jun 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fortaleza EC score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Nautico Recife score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza EC | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Nautico Recife | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fortaleza EC sit 5th in Serie B (40 points from 24 matches) and Nautico Recife sit 15th (31 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fortaleza EC | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 27 | 21 | 40 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 27 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife?
- The Footlab model makes Fortaleza EC the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Nautico Recife.
- Where and when is Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife played?
- Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife is played on October 3, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.