Avondale vs Hume City: prediction and stats
Victoria NPLRegular Season - 26Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC)Avondale Park, Carrigaline
The Footlab model makes Avondale the favourite at 57%, against 19% for a draw and 23% for Hume City. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Avondale vs Hume City?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Avondale (1,958) and Hume City (1,909).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Avondale have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Hume City have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Altona Magic(away) | 2-0 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sunshine Georgies(away) | 2-3 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Heidelberg United(home) | 2-1 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Melbourne City II(away) | 3-2 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 18, 2026 | St. Albans Saints(home) | 1-1 | Victoria NPL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sunshine Georgies(home) | 3-2 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Heidelberg United(away) | 5-4 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Melbourne City II(home) | 1-0 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 24, 2026 | St. Albans Saints(away) | 2-3 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Oakleigh Cannons(home) | 0-1 | Victoria NPL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Avondale win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Hume City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Hume City 3-0 Avondale | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Hume City 1-2 Avondale | Victoria NPL |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Avondale 2-0 Hume City | Victoria NPL |
| Jun 15, 2024 | Avondale 5-0 Hume City | Victoria NPL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Hume City 1-2 Avondale | Victoria NPL |
| Jun 3, 2023 | Hume City 0-1 Avondale | Victoria NPL |
Last archived meeting: Hume City vs Avondale on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Avondale score 2.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Hume City score 2.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avondale | 2.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Hume City | 2.4 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Avondale sit 4th in Victoria NPL (44 points from 25 matches) and Hume City sit 3rd (49 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hume City | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 51 | 34 | 49 |
| 4 | Avondale | 25 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 63 | 34 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Avondale vs Hume City?
- The Footlab model makes Avondale the favourite at 57%, against 19% for a draw and 23% for Hume City.
- Where and when is Avondale vs Hume City played?
- Avondale vs Hume City is played on August 29, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at Avondale Park, in the Victoria NPL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.