St. Albans Saints vs Dandenong Thunder: prediction and stats
Victoria NPLRegular Season - 26Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC)Churchill Reserve, Melbourne
The Footlab model makes St. Albans Saints the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Dandenong Thunder. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win St. Albans Saints vs Dandenong Thunder?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate St. Albans Saints (1,723) and Dandenong Thunder (1,691).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, St. Albans Saints have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Dandenong Thunder have 1, 1 and 13.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Green Gully(away) | 2-1 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bentleigh Greens(home) | 1-1 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 2, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 0-2 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Hume City(home) | 3-2 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Avondale(away) | 1-1 | Victoria NPL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oakleigh Cannons(home) | 0-5 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Preston Lions(away) | 0-3 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dandenong City(home) | 0-3 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Altona Magic(home) | 0-2 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Green Gully(away) | 1-3 | Victoria NPL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 St. Albans Saints win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Dandenong Thunder win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Dandenong Thunder 2-2 St. Albans Saints | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 17, 2025 | St. Albans Saints 1-5 Dandenong Thunder | Victoria NPL |
| May 3, 2025 | Dandenong Thunder 2-2 St. Albans Saints | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 28, 2024 | St. Albans Saints 1-0 Dandenong Thunder | Victoria NPL |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Dandenong Thunder 3-0 St. Albans Saints | Victoria NPL |
| May 27, 2023 | St. Albans Saints 0-4 Dandenong Thunder | Victoria NPL |
Last archived meeting: Dandenong Thunder vs St. Albans Saints on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
St. Albans Saints score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Dandenong Thunder score 0.7 and concede 3.1. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Albans Saints | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Dandenong Thunder | 0.7 | 3.1 | 0 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
St. Albans Saints sit 9th in Victoria NPL (31 points from 25 matches) and Dandenong Thunder sit 14th (15 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | St. Albans Saints | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 30 | 43 | 31 |
| 14 | Dandenong Thunder | 25 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 23 | 59 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for St. Albans Saints vs Dandenong Thunder?
- The Footlab model makes St. Albans Saints the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Dandenong Thunder.
- Where and when is St. Albans Saints vs Dandenong Thunder played?
- St. Albans Saints vs Dandenong Thunder is played on August 29, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at Churchill Reserve, in the Victoria NPL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.