Heidelberg United vs Bentleigh Greens: prediction and stats
Victoria NPLRegular Season - 26Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC)Olympic Park (Village), Melbourne
The Footlab model makes Heidelberg United the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Bentleigh Greens. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Heidelberg United vs Bentleigh Greens?
Heidelberg United starts as the favourite with a 206-point Elo edge (1,930 vs 1,725).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Heidelberg United have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Bentleigh Greens have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 2-1 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hume City(home) | 4-5 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 12, 2026 | North Sunshine Eagles(away) | 0-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Avondale(away) | 1-2 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Sunshine Georgies(home) | 0-0 | Victoria NPL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Melbourne City II(away) | 6-2 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 14, 2026 | St. Albans Saints(away) | 1-1 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Oakleigh Cannons(home) | 0-0 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Preston Lions(away) | 0-1 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Dandenong City(home) | 2-1 | Victoria NPL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Heidelberg United win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Bentleigh Greens win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Bentleigh Greens 2-2 Heidelberg United | Victoria NPL |
| Jun 24, 2023 | Bentleigh Greens 1-1 Heidelberg United | Victoria NPL |
| Mar 24, 2023 | Heidelberg United 3-1 Bentleigh Greens | Victoria NPL |
| Jun 5, 2022 | Heidelberg United 2-2 Bentleigh Greens | Victoria NPL |
| Mar 4, 2022 | Bentleigh Greens 1-0 Heidelberg United | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 11, 2021 | Heidelberg United 0-3 Bentleigh Greens | Victoria NPL |
Last archived meeting: Bentleigh Greens vs Heidelberg United on May 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Heidelberg United score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Bentleigh Greens score 1.1 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidelberg United | 1.4 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Bentleigh Greens | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Heidelberg United sit 6th in Victoria NPL (37 points from 25 matches) and Bentleigh Greens sit 12th (24 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Heidelberg United | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 40 | 34 | 37 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 49 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Heidelberg United vs Bentleigh Greens?
- The Footlab model makes Heidelberg United the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Bentleigh Greens.
- Where and when is Heidelberg United vs Bentleigh Greens played?
- Heidelberg United vs Bentleigh Greens is played on August 29, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at Olympic Park (Village), in the Victoria NPL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.