Melbourne City II vs Green Gully: prediction and stats
Victoria NPLRegular Season - 26Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC)Casey Fields - Pitch 4, Melbourne
The Footlab model makes Melbourne City II the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Green Gully. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne City II vs Green Gully?
Melbourne City II starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,778 vs 1,673).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne City II have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Green Gully have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bentleigh Greens(home) | 2-6 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Preston Lions(away) | 0-4 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | South Melbourne(home) | 0-3 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hume City(away) | 0-1 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Avondale(home) | 2-3 | Victoria NPL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | St. Albans Saints(home) | 1-2 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Oakleigh Cannons(away) | 1-4 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Preston Lions(away) | 2-2 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Dandenong City(home) | 0-0 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Dandenong Thunder(home) | 3-1 | Victoria NPL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Melbourne City II win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Green Gully win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Green Gully 1-3 Melbourne City II | Victoria NPL |
Last archived meeting: Green Gully vs Melbourne City II on May 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne City II score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Green Gully score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City II | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
| Green Gully | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne City II sit 10th in Victoria NPL (30 points from 25 matches) and Green Gully sit 13th (15 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Melbourne City II | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 41 | 40 | 30 |
| 13 | Green Gully | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 51 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne City II vs Green Gully?
- The Footlab model makes Melbourne City II the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Green Gully.
- Where and when is Melbourne City II vs Green Gully played?
- Melbourne City II vs Green Gully is played on August 29, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at Casey Fields - Pitch 4, in the Victoria NPL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.