Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 26Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Somerset Park, Ayr
The Footlab AI model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Stenhousemuir. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ayr Utd wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,603 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Ayr Utd (1,684) and Stenhousemuir (1,776).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ayr Utd
3-4-3- 12Olly Whyte
- 7O. Stirton
- 11R. Taylor
- 6R. Lyon
- 33S. McMann
- 32D. Watret
- 20L. McBeth
- 5K. Holt
- 3L. Dick
- 8L. King
- 1H. Stone
Stenhousemuir
3-4-3- 20G. Stevenson
- 11L. O'Donnell
- 36L. Lloyd
- 2R. Meechan
- 17M. Anderson
- 10A. Shinnie
- 14K. Bilham
- 5S. Young
- 19S. Bright
- 24L. Grant
- 1D. Jamieson
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 02:23 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ayr Utd have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Stenhousemuir have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Partick(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Dunfermline(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Livingston(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Queen's Park(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Raith Rovers(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Ayr Utd(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Partick(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Ayr Utd wins, 0 draws, 1 Stenhousemuir win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Ayr Utd 0-1 Stenhousemuir | Championship |
| Jul 23, 2024 | Stenhousemuir 1-4 Ayr Utd | League Cup |
| Jul 18, 2023 | Ayr Utd 1-0 Stenhousemuir | League Cup |
| Jul 24, 2018 | Ayr Utd 5-0 Stenhousemuir | League Cup |
| Apr 16, 2016 | Stenhousemuir 0-4 Ayr Utd | League One |
| Mar 8, 2016 | Ayr Utd 4-1 Stenhousemuir | League One |
Last archived meeting: Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir on Sep 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ayr Utd score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Stenhousemuir score 1.2 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr Utd | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Stenhousemuir | 1.2 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ayr Utd sit 7th in Championship (12 points from 11 matches) and Stenhousemuir sit 1st (22 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 22 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
A question about Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Stenhousemuir.
- Where and when is Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir played?
- Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir is played on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Somerset Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.