PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle
The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for PEC Zwolle. The most likely score is 1-1. If Excelsior wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?
A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate PEC Zwolle (1,821) and Excelsior (1,919).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
PEC Zwolle
4-2-3-1- 10K. Kostons
- 8T. Sommer
- 11D. Mbayo
- 22I. Cissoko
- 25T. Oosting
- 30R. Thomas
- 24N. Viergever
- 28S. Graves
- 3O. Aertssen
- 2S. Floranus
- 1J. Schendelaar
Excelsior
4-3-3- 19D. Garden
- 30Á. Þorsteinsson
- 7A. Sliti
- 3R. Meissen
- 20L. Hartjes
- 8I. Yegoian
- 14J. Plug
- 4C. Widell
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
- 15S. Janssen
- 1S. van Gassel
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 12:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, PEC Zwolle have 3 wins, 1 draw and 11 defeats; Excelsior have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cambuur(home) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 0-3 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Feyenoord(home) | 0-7 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 29, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 PEC Zwolle wins, 1 draw, 2 Excelsior wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | PEC Zwolle 2-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Excelsior 2-1 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| Apr 6, 2024 | PEC Zwolle 2-1 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Excelsior 2-4 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| Dec 15, 2020 | Excelsior 2-0 PEC Zwolle | KNVB Beker |
| Mar 17, 2019 | Excelsior 0-2 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
PEC Zwolle score 1.0 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior score 2.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 1.0 | 2.7 | 2 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Excelsior | 2.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
PEC Zwolle sit 16th in Eredivisie (4 points from 8 matches) and Excelsior sit 9th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 4 |
A question about PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?
- The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for PEC Zwolle.
- Where and when is PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior played?
- PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at MAC³PARK Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.