Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam
The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for Excelsior. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar starts as the favourite with a 214-point Elo edge (2,133 vs 1,919).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Excelsior
4-3-3- 19D. Garden
- 30Á. Þorsteinsson
- 7A. Sliti
- 3R. Meissen
- 20L. Hartjes
- 8I. Yegoian
- 14J. Plug
- 4C. Widell
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
- 15S. Janssen
- 1S. van Gassel
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1- 9M. Meerdink
- 6P. Koopmeiners
- 11R. Daal
- 14C. Stengs
- 8J. Clasie
- 24A. Oufkir
- 3W. Goes
- 4L. Schouten
- 22E. Dijkstra
- 5M. Chávez
- 28J. De Busser
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 12:59 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; AZ Alkmaar have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Heerenveen(away) | 3-2 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Excelsior wins, 2 draws, 4 AZ Alkmaar wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Excelsior 1-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Jan 21, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Jul 13, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 8-0 Excelsior | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 10, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Excelsior 1-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Feb 10, 2023 | AZ Alkmaar 5-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior score 2.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; AZ Alkmaar score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 2.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior sit 9th in Eredivisie (11 points from 8 matches) and AZ Alkmaar sit 3rd (19 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 19 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
A question about Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
- The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for Excelsior.
- Where and when is Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar played?
- Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.