Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam
The Footlab model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Excelsior. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar starts as the favourite with a 229-point Elo edge (2,161 vs 1,932).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; AZ Alkmaar have 8, 7 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Heracles(away) | 5-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(home) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 4-0 | Super Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Excelsior win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 AZ Alkmaar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Excelsior 1-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Jan 21, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Jul 13, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 8-0 Excelsior | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 10, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Excelsior 1-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Feb 10, 2023 | AZ Alkmaar 5-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior score 2.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; AZ Alkmaar score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 2.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior sit 10th in Eredivisie (3 points from 2 matches) and AZ Alkmaar sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
- The Footlab model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Excelsior.
- Where and when is Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar played?
- Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.