Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
The Footlab model makes Utrecht the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Fortuna Sittard. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard?
Utrecht starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (1,981 vs 1,867).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Utrecht have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Fortuna Sittard have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cambuur(home) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Apoel Nicosia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Metz(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Utrecht win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Fortuna Sittard win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Utrecht 2-0 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| May 18, 2025 | Fortuna Sittard 0-0 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Utrecht 2-5 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Utrecht 4-0 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Fortuna Sittard 0-0 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Utrecht score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Fortuna Sittard score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Fortuna Sittard | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Utrecht sit 15th in Eredivisie (1 points from 3 matches) and Fortuna Sittard sit 8th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fortuna Sittard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard?
- The Footlab model makes Utrecht the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Fortuna Sittard.
- Where and when is Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard played?
- Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Galgenwaard, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.