AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 11, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
The Footlab model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 72%, against 17% for a draw and 11% for Willem II. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
AZ Alkmaar is a heavy favourite: 2,165 Elo points against 1,832 — a 333-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AZ Alkmaar have 8 wins, 7 draws and 0 defeats; Willem II have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(home) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 4-0 | Super Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Genk(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | OFI(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | KV Mechelen(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 AZ Alkmaar win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Willem II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2025 | Willem II 0-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Nov 10, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Mar 20, 2022 | Willem II 2-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Dec 18, 2021 | AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Apr 3, 2021 | Willem II 0-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Dec 20, 2020 | AZ Alkmaar 5-3 Willem II | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar on Feb 2, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
AZ Alkmaar score 2.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Willem II score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Willem II | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AZ Alkmaar sit 1st in Eredivisie (6 points from 2 matches) and Willem II sit 17th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 17 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
- The Footlab model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 72%, against 17% for a draw and 11% for Willem II.
- Where and when is AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II played?
- AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II is played on September 11, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at AFAS Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.