PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
The Footlab model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 13% for Sparta Rotterdam. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam?
PSV Eindhoven starts as the favourite with a 290-point Elo edge (2,216 vs 1,926).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, PSV Eindhoven have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Sparta Rotterdam have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Excelsior(away) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 0-4 | Super Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Telstar(away) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Feyenoord(home) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | MSV Duisburg(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Asteras Tripolis(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Zulte Waregem(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 PSV Eindhoven win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Sparta Rotterdam win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2025 | PSV Eindhoven 6-1 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| May 18, 2025 | Sparta Rotterdam 1-3 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Oct 5, 2024 | PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| May 5, 2024 | PSV Eindhoven 4-2 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Sparta Rotterdam 0-4 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
PSV Eindhoven score 2.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sparta Rotterdam score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 2.9 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1.3 | 1.6 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
PSV Eindhoven sit 6th in Eredivisie (4 points from 2 matches) and Sparta Rotterdam sit 12th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam?
- The Footlab model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 13% for Sparta Rotterdam.
- Where and when is PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam played?
- PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam is played on September 13, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Philips Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.