Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard
The Footlab model makes Ajax the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Fortuna Sittard. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?
Ajax starts as the favourite with a 223-point Elo edge (2,112 vs 1,889).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fortuna Sittard have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Ajax have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cambuur(home) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Apoel Nicosia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Metz(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Sion(away) | 4-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Heerenveen(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Shelbourne(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(away) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Shelbourne(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Fortuna Sittard win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Ajax win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Ajax 4-1 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Fortuna Sittard 1-3 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Fortuna Sittard 0-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Ajax 5-0 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Ajax 2-2 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Sep 3, 2023 | Fortuna Sittard 0-0 Ajax | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fortuna Sittard score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ajax score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Ajax | 2.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fortuna Sittard sit 4th in Eredivisie (4 points from 2 matches) and Ajax sit 5th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fortuna Sittard | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?
- The Footlab model makes Ajax the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Fortuna Sittard.
- Where and when is Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax played?
- Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax is played on September 12, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.