Where and when is Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd Town played?

Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd Town is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd Town: prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, Port Talbot

Baglan Dragons

Pontypridd Town

The Footlab model makes Pontypridd Town the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd Town?

Pontypridd Town starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (1,599 vs 1,472).

Baglan Dragons win23 %

Draw24 %

Pontypridd Town win54 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Baglan Dragons have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Pontypridd Town have 9, 3 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Baglan Dragons
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Newport City(away)	1-0	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Llantwit Major(away)	1-0	FAW Championship
Aug 9, 2026	Swansea University(home)	0-3	FAW Championship
Jul 31, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	0-0	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(home)	1-1	FAW Championship

Pontypridd Town
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(home)	2-1	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Cardiff Draconians(away)	4-1	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Pontardawe Town(home)	3-2	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Treowen Stars(away)	3-2	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Caerau (Ely)(home)	0-0	FAW Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Baglan Dragons win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Pontypridd Town win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 21, 2026	Pontypridd Town 2-0 Baglan Dragons	FAW Championship
Jul 27, 2025	Baglan Dragons 3-0 Pontypridd Town	FAW Championship
Jan 17, 2025	Pontypridd Town 1-0 Baglan Dragons	FAW Championship
Oct 26, 2024	Baglan Dragons 2-2 Pontypridd Town	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons on Feb 21, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Baglan Dragons score 0.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Pontypridd Town score 2.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Baglan Dragons	0.5	2.1	4	4/15	7/15
Pontypridd Town	2.1	1.6	4	10/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Baglan Dragons sit 5th in FAW Championship (7 points from 4 matches) and Pontypridd Town sit 2nd (12 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Pontypridd Town	4	4	0	0	12	6	12
5	Baglan Dragons	4	2	1	1	2	3	7

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd Town?: The Footlab model makes Pontypridd Town the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Baglan Dragons.
Where and when is Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd Town played?: Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd Town is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.