Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 17Kick-off on December 4, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)USW Sports Park, Treforest, Pontypridd
The Footlab AI model makes Pontypridd Town the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pontypridd Town wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,768 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons?
On Elo ratings, Pontypridd Town has 1,642 points and Baglan Dragons 1,561.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pontypridd Town
Not enough data to predict the Pontypridd Town lineup.
Baglan Dragons
Not enough data to predict the Baglan Dragons lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 11:33 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontypridd Town have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Baglan Dragons have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Llantwit Fardre(away) | 3-1 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Pontypridd Town wins, 2 draws, 1 Baglan Dragons win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Baglan Dragons 1-1 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Pontypridd Town 2-0 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Baglan Dragons 3-0 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
| Jan 17, 2025 | Pontypridd Town 1-0 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Baglan Dragons 2-2 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd Town on Oct 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pontypridd Town score 2.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Baglan Dragons score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontypridd Town | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Baglan Dragons | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pontypridd Town sit 2nd in FAW Championship (20 points from 10 matches) and Baglan Dragons sit 5th (17 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 17 | 20 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 17 |
A question about Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pontypridd Town the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Baglan Dragons.
- Where and when is Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons played?
- Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons is played on December 4, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at USW Sports Park, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.