Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 17Kick-off on December 4, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)USW Sports Park, Treforest, Pontypridd
The Footlab model makes Pontypridd Town the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons?
Pontypridd Town starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (1,599 vs 1,472).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontypridd Town have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Baglan Dragons have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Llantwit Major(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Pontypridd Town win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Baglan Dragons win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Pontypridd Town 2-0 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Baglan Dragons 3-0 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
| Jan 17, 2025 | Pontypridd Town 1-0 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Baglan Dragons 2-2 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pontypridd Town score 2.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Baglan Dragons score 0.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontypridd Town | 2.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Baglan Dragons | 0.5 | 2.1 | 4 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pontypridd Town sit 2nd in FAW Championship (12 points from 4 matches) and Baglan Dragons sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons?
- The Footlab model makes Pontypridd Town the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Baglan Dragons.
- Where and when is Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons played?
- Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons is played on December 4, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at USW Sports Park, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.