Afan Lido vs Swansea University: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 11Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Princess Margaret Way, Port Talbot / Porth Talbot, Neath Port Talbot
The Footlab model makes Swansea University the favourite at 69%, against 17% for a draw and 14% for Afan Lido. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Afan Lido vs Swansea University?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Afan Lido (1,476) and Swansea University (1,557).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Afan Lido have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Swansea University have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 5-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 2-5 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(away) | 5-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Llantwit Major(away) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Trefelin(home) | 1-6 | Welsh Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Afan Lido win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Swansea University win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2023 | Swansea University 1-3 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
| Aug 26, 2022 | Afan Lido 7-1 Swansea University | FAW Championship |
| Mar 5, 2022 | Swansea University 2-0 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
| Jul 27, 2021 | Afan Lido 0-3 Swansea University | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Swansea University vs Afan Lido on Mar 17, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Afan Lido score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Swansea University score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afan Lido | 1.7 | 1.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Swansea University | 1.9 | 1.6 | 6 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Afan Lido sit 8th in FAW Championship (6 points from 4 matches) and Swansea University sit 1st (12 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Afan Lido | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Afan Lido vs Swansea University?
- The Footlab model makes Swansea University the favourite at 69%, against 17% for a draw and 14% for Afan Lido.
- Where and when is Afan Lido vs Swansea University played?
- Afan Lido vs Swansea University is played on October 9, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Princess Margaret Way, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 9, 2026Caerphilly AthleticvsNewport City
- Oct 10, 2026Aberystwyth TownvsCaerau (Ely)
- Oct 10, 2026Llantwit MajorvsPontardawe Town
- Oct 10, 2026Cardiff DraconiansvsCarmarthen Town
- Oct 10, 2026Ynyshir Albionsvsllanelli AFC
- Oct 10, 2026Treowen StarsvsTrethomas Bluebirds
- Oct 10, 2026Baglan DragonsvsPontypridd Town