Where and when is Llantwit Major vs Pontardawe Town played?

Llantwit Major vs Pontardawe Town is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Windmill Ground, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Llantwit Major vs Pontardawe Town: prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Windmill Ground, Llantwit Major

Llantwit Major

Pontardawe Town

The Footlab model makes Llantwit Major the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Pontardawe Town. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Llantwit Major vs Pontardawe Town?

A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Llantwit Major (1,483) and Pontardawe Town (1,467).

Llantwit Major win41 %

Draw24 %

Pontardawe Town win36 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Llantwit Major have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; Pontardawe Town have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Llantwit Major
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Aberystwyth Town(away)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Baglan Dragons(home)	0-1	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Afan Lido(away)	0-5	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Swansea University(home)	0-3	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Cambrian & Clydach(home)	1-3	FAW Championship

Pontardawe Town
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Afan Lido(away)	0-1	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Newport City(home)	0-4	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Pontypridd Town(away)	2-3	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Caerphilly Athletic(home)	3-0	FAW Championship
Apr 20, 2024	Baglan Dragons(away)	2-1	FAW Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Llantwit Major win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Pontardawe Town win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 23, 2024	Llantwit Major 0-0 Pontardawe Town	FAW Championship
Dec 16, 2023	Pontardawe Town 3-2 Llantwit Major	FAW Championship
Jan 28, 2023	Llantwit Major 4-1 Pontardawe Town	FAW Championship
Oct 22, 2022	Pontardawe Town 0-3 Llantwit Major	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Llantwit Major vs Pontardawe Town on Mar 23, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Llantwit Major score 1.5 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Pontardawe Town score 1.3 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Llantwit Major	1.5	2.5	1	10/15	13/15
Pontardawe Town	1.3	2.1	3	7/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Llantwit Major sit 16th in FAW Championship (0 points from 4 matches) and Pontardawe Town sit 13th (3 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
13	Pontardawe Town	4	1	0	3	5	8	3
16	Llantwit Major	4	0	0	4	1	14	0

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Llantwit Major vs Pontardawe Town?: The Footlab model makes Llantwit Major the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Pontardawe Town.
Where and when is Llantwit Major vs Pontardawe Town played?: Llantwit Major vs Pontardawe Town is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Windmill Ground, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.