Cardiff Draconians vs Carmarthen Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 46%, against 21% for a draw and 33% for Cardiff Draconians. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cardiff Draconians vs Carmarthen Town?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Cardiff Draconians (1,549) and Carmarthen Town (1,616).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff Draconians have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Carmarthen Town have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 4-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Cardiff Draconians win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Carmarthen Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians 2-3 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Carmarthen Town 2-1 Cardiff Draconians | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Cardiff Draconians vs Carmarthen Town on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cardiff Draconians score 1.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Carmarthen Town score 2.5 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff Draconians | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Carmarthen Town | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cardiff Draconians sit 10th in FAW Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Carmarthen Town sit 4th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 10 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cardiff Draconians vs Carmarthen Town?
- The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 46%, against 21% for a draw and 33% for Cardiff Draconians.
- Where and when is Cardiff Draconians vs Carmarthen Town played?
- Cardiff Draconians vs Carmarthen Town is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.