Where and when is Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely) played?

Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely) is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Park Avenue, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Park Avenue, Aberystwyth, Ceredigion

Aberystwyth Town

Caerau (Ely)

The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 34% for Aberystwyth Town. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely)?

A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Aberystwyth Town (1,577) and Caerau (Ely) (1,654).

Aberystwyth Town win34 %

Draw23 %

Caerau (Ely) win44 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aberystwyth Town have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Aberystwyth Town
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Llantwit Major(home)	5-1	FAW Championship
Aug 8, 2026	Treowen Stars(home)	1-2	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Afan Lido(away)	5-2	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(away)	0-0	FAW Championship
Apr 11, 2026	Cwmbran Celtic(away)	1-3	FAW Championship

Caerau (Ely)
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Swansea University(home)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	3-4	FAW Championship
Jul 25, 2026	Barnstaple Town(home)	4-4	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Aberystwyth Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Caerau (Ely) win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 1, 2026	Aberystwyth Town 0-4 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Dec 20, 2025	Caerau (Ely) 1-0 Aberystwyth Town	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely) on Mar 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Aberystwyth Town score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Aberystwyth Town	1.5	1.6	4	7/15	10/15
Caerau (Ely)	2.1	1.5	6	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Aberystwyth Town sit 6th in FAW Championship (6 points from 3 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 11th (4 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Aberystwyth Town	3	2	0	1	11	5	6
11	Caerau (Ely)	4	1	1	2	9	12	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely)?: The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 34% for Aberystwyth Town.
Where and when is Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely) played?: Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely) is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Park Avenue, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.