Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 21Kick-off on January 22, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, Port Talbot
The Footlab AI model makes Treowen Stars the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1. If Treowen Stars wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 6,201 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Baglan Dragons (1,018) and Treowen Stars (1,059).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Baglan Dragons
Not enough data to predict the Baglan Dragons lineup.
Treowen Stars
Not enough data to predict the Treowen Stars lineup.
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 02:59 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Baglan Dragons have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Treowen Stars have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2026 | Barry Town(home) | 1-1 | Welsh Cup |
| Nov 6, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Llantwit Fardre(away) | 3-1 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2026 | Swansea University(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Nov 6, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Baglan Dragons wins, 0 draws, 3 Treowen Stars wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Baglan Dragons 0-1 Treowen Stars | FAW Championship |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Treowen Stars 4-1 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Baglan Dragons 3-4 Treowen Stars | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars on Oct 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Baglan Dragons score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Treowen Stars score 1.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baglan Dragons | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Treowen Stars | 1.9 | 2.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Baglan Dragons sit 6th in FAW Championship (20 points from 13 matches) and Treowen Stars sit 5th (20 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Treowen Stars | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 25 | 20 |
| 6 | Baglan Dragons | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 20 |
A question about Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars?
- The Footlab AI model makes Treowen Stars the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Baglan Dragons.
- Where and when is Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars played?
- Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars is played on January 22, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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