Where and when is Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars played?

Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars is played on January 22, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars: prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 21Kick-off on January 22, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, Port Talbot

Baglan Dragons

Treowen Stars

The Footlab model makes Treowen Stars the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars?

Treowen Stars starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,581 vs 1,474).

Baglan Dragons win26 %

Draw23 %

Treowen Stars win51 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Baglan Dragons have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Treowen Stars have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Baglan Dragons
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Newport City(away)	1-0	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Llantwit Major(away)	1-0	FAW Championship
Aug 9, 2026	Swansea University(home)	0-3	FAW Championship
Jul 31, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	0-0	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(home)	1-1	FAW Championship

Treowen Stars
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Caerphilly Athletic(home)	3-0	FAW Championship
Aug 8, 2026	Aberystwyth Town(away)	2-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Pontypridd Town(home)	2-3	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Carmarthen Town(home)	4-1	FAW Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Baglan Dragons win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Treowen Stars win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 17, 2026	Treowen Stars 4-1 Baglan Dragons	FAW Championship
Oct 24, 2025	Baglan Dragons 3-4 Treowen Stars	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Treowen Stars vs Baglan Dragons on Mar 17, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Baglan Dragons score 0.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Treowen Stars score 2.0 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Baglan Dragons	0.5	2.1	4	4/15	7/15
Treowen Stars	2.0	2.2	1	11/15	13/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Baglan Dragons sit 5th in FAW Championship (7 points from 4 matches) and Treowen Stars sit 3rd (9 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Treowen Stars	4	3	0	1	11	6	9
5	Baglan Dragons	4	2	1	1	2	3	7

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars?: The Footlab model makes Treowen Stars the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Baglan Dragons.
Where and when is Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars played?: Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars is played on January 22, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.