Carmarthen Town vs Pontypridd Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 21Kick-off on January 22, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC)LHP Stadium, Caerfyrddin / Carmarthen, Dyfed
The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 50%, against 22% for a draw and 28% for Pontypridd Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carmarthen Town vs Pontypridd Town?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Carmarthen Town (1,616) and Pontypridd Town (1,600).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carmarthen Town have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Pontypridd Town have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 4-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Carmarthen Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Pontypridd Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Carmarthen Town 0-1 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Pontypridd Town 3-1 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Pontypridd Town 1-3 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Carmarthen Town 0-1 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Carmarthen Town 4-2 Pontypridd Town | Welsh Cup |
| Aug 6, 2022 | Pontypridd Town 2-0 Carmarthen Town | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Carmarthen Town vs Pontypridd Town on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Carmarthen Town score 2.5 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Pontypridd Town score 2.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmarthen Town | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Pontypridd Town | 2.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carmarthen Town sit 4th in FAW Championship (9 points from 4 matches) and Pontypridd Town sit 2nd (12 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carmarthen Town vs Pontypridd Town?
- The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 50%, against 22% for a draw and 28% for Pontypridd Town.
- Where and when is Carmarthen Town vs Pontypridd Town played?
- Carmarthen Town vs Pontypridd Town is played on January 22, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at LHP Stadium, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Jan 22, 2027Swansea UniversityvsYnyshir Albions
- Jan 22, 2027Afan LidovsCardiff Draconians
- Jan 22, 2027Newport CityvsLlantwit Major
- Jan 22, 2027llanelli AFCvsAberystwyth Town
- Jan 22, 2027Caerphilly AthleticvsPontardawe Town
- Jan 22, 2027Baglan DragonsvsTreowen Stars
- Jan 22, 2027Caerau (Ely)vsTrethomas Bluebirds