Caerau (Ely) vs Trethomas Bluebirds: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 21Kick-off on January 22, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Cwrt-yr-Ala, Caerdydd
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 64%, against 18% for a draw and 18% for Trethomas Bluebirds. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,422 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 139-point Elo edge (1,741 vs 1,602).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caerau (Ely) vs Trethomas Bluebirds
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Trethomas Bluebirds
Not enough data to predict the Trethomas Bluebirds lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 11:33 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerau (Ely) have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Trethomas Bluebirds have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Caerau (Ely) wins, 2 draws, 1 Trethomas Bluebirds win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds 2-4 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds 1-5 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) 1-1 Trethomas Bluebirds | FAW Championship |
| Feb 21, 2025 | Trethomas Bluebirds 1-0 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Aug 26, 2024 | Caerau (Ely) 2-2 Trethomas Bluebirds | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau (Ely) on Aug 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Trethomas Bluebirds score 2.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Trethomas Bluebirds | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1 | 14/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caerau (Ely) sit 4th in FAW Championship (19 points from 10 matches) and Trethomas Bluebirds sit 8th (13 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 18 | 13 |
A question about Caerau (Ely) vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerau (Ely) vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 64%, against 18% for a draw and 18% for Trethomas Bluebirds.
- Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Trethomas Bluebirds played?
- Caerau (Ely) vs Trethomas Bluebirds is played on January 22, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Jan 22, 2027llanelli AFCvsAberystwyth Town
- Jan 22, 2027Carmarthen TownvsPontypridd Town
- Jan 22, 2027Afan LidovsCardiff Draconians
- Jan 22, 2027Swansea UniversityvsYnyshir Albions
- Jan 22, 2027Caerphilly AthleticvsPontardawe Town
- Jan 22, 2027Baglan DragonsvsTreowen Stars
- Jan 22, 2027Newport CityvsLlantwit Major