Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Trethomas Bluebirds played?

Caerau (Ely) vs Trethomas Bluebirds is played on January 22, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Caerau (Ely) vs Trethomas Bluebirds: prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 21Kick-off on January 22, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Cwrt-yr-Ala, Caerdydd

Caerau (Ely)

Trethomas Bluebirds

The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 71%, against 16% for a draw and 13% for Trethomas Bluebirds. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Trethomas Bluebirds?

Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (1,656 vs 1,512).

Caerau (Ely) win71 %

Draw16 %

Trethomas Bluebirds win13 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerau (Ely) have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Trethomas Bluebirds have 2, 6 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Caerau (Ely)
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Swansea University(home)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	3-4	FAW Championship
Jul 25, 2026	Barnstaple Town(home)	4-4	Friendlies Clubs

Trethomas Bluebirds
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Pontypridd Town(away)	1-2	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Caerau (Ely)(home)	2-4	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	llanelli AFC(away)	1-1	FAW Championship
Jul 31, 2026	Baglan Dragons(home)	0-0	FAW Championship
Jul 14, 2026	Barry Town(away)	1-5	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Caerau (Ely) win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Trethomas Bluebirds win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds 2-4 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Jan 23, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds 1-5 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Aug 8, 2025	Caerau (Ely) 1-1 Trethomas Bluebirds	FAW Championship
Feb 21, 2025	Trethomas Bluebirds 1-0 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Aug 26, 2024	Caerau (Ely) 2-2 Trethomas Bluebirds	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau (Ely) on Aug 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Trethomas Bluebirds score 1.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Caerau (Ely)	2.1	1.5	6	8/15	8/15
Trethomas Bluebirds	1.5	2.3	3	10/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Caerau (Ely) sit 11th in FAW Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Trethomas Bluebirds sit 14th (2 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
11	Caerau (Ely)	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
14	Trethomas Bluebirds	4	0	2	2	4	7	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Caerau (Ely) vs Trethomas Bluebirds?: The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 71%, against 16% for a draw and 13% for Trethomas Bluebirds.
Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Trethomas Bluebirds played?: Caerau (Ely) vs Trethomas Bluebirds is played on January 22, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.