Bansko vs Natsional Sofia: prediction and stats
Third League - SouthwestSouthwest - 19Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Sveti Petar, Bansko
The Footlab model makes Bansko the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Natsional Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bansko vs Natsional Sofia?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Bansko (1,491) and Natsional Sofia (1,463).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bansko have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Natsional Sofia have 3, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FK Minyor Pernik(away) | 2-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pirin Razlog(home) | 3-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Natsional Sofia(away) | 2-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chavdar Etropole(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| May 29, 2026 | Balkan Botevgrad(home) | 0-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Strumska Slava(home) | 0-3 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oborishte(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bansko(home) | 2-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FK Minyor Pernik(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Rilski Sportist(home) | 3-4 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Bansko win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Natsional Sofia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Natsional Sofia 2-2 Bansko | Third League - Southwest |
Last archived meeting: Natsional Sofia vs Bansko on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bansko score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Natsional Sofia score 3.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bansko | 1.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Natsional Sofia | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2 | 5/9 | 8/9 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bansko sit 1st in Third League - Southwest (10 points from 4 matches) and Natsional Sofia sit 17th (1 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bansko | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 10 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bansko vs Natsional Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes Bansko the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Natsional Sofia.
- Where and when is Bansko vs Natsional Sofia played?
- Bansko vs Natsional Sofia is played on November 28, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Sveti Petar, in the Third League - Southwest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 28, 2026OborishtevsChavdar Etropole
- Nov 28, 2026Strumska SlavavsCSKA Sofia III
- Nov 28, 2026Botev IhtimanvsSlivnishki geroy
- Nov 28, 2026FK Minyor PernikvsPirin Razlog
- Nov 28, 2026KyustendilvsKostinbrod
- Nov 28, 2026Septemvri SimitlivsBalkan Botevgrad
- Nov 28, 2026Levski Sofia IIvsBelasitsa
- Nov 28, 2026Slavia Sofia IIvsSeptemvri Sofia II