Barakaldo vs Athletic Club II: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, Barakaldo
The Footlab model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Athletic Club II. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barakaldo vs Athletic Club II?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Barakaldo (1,958) and Athletic Club II (1,897).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barakaldo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Athletic Club II have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Portugalete(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(home) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Real Avilés(away) | 4-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Tenerife(away) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Laredo(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Amorebieta(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Sestao River(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Ponferradina(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Barakaldo win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Athletic Club II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Athletic Club II 2-0 Barakaldo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Barakaldo 2-1 Athletic Club II | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Athletic Club II 1-2 Barakaldo | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Barakaldo 0-0 Athletic Club II | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Athletic Club II 0-2 Barakaldo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Mar 24, 2024 | Barakaldo 1-2 Athletic Club II | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Athletic Club II vs Barakaldo on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barakaldo score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Athletic Club II score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barakaldo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Athletic Club II | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barakaldo sit 7th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (58 points from 38 matches) and Athletic Club II sit 13th (49 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Barakaldo | 38 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 51 | 38 | 58 |
| 13 | Athletic Club II | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 46 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barakaldo vs Athletic Club II?
- The Footlab model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Athletic Club II.
- Where and when is Barakaldo vs Athletic Club II played?
- Barakaldo vs Athletic Club II is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.