Khatlon vs Parvoz: prediction and stats
Vysshaya LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Vaxş-Arena, Kurgan-Tyube
The Footlab model makes Khatlon the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Parvoz. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Khatlon vs Parvoz?
Khatlon starts as the favourite with a 277-point Elo edge (1,457 vs 1,180).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Khatlon have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Parvoz have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | CSKA Pomir(away) | 1-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Eskhata(home) | 4-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Barki Tajik(away) | 2-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Ravshan(home) | 0-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 24, 2026 | Khujand(away) | 0-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Regar-TadAZ(away) | 0-3 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Sardor Tursunzoda(home) | 2-4 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Istaravshan(away) | 1-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Barki Tajik(away) | 0-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 12, 2026 | CSKA Pomir(away) | 2-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Khatlon win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Parvoz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Parvoz 1-1 Khatlon | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 13, 2016 | Khatlon 2-1 Parvoz | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 18, 2016 | Parvoz 0-0 Khatlon | Vysshaya Liga |
| Nov 22, 2015 | Parvoz 2-1 Khatlon | Vysshaya Liga |
| Apr 11, 2015 | Khatlon 1-0 Parvoz | Vysshaya Liga |
| Oct 19, 2014 | Parvoz 1-0 Khatlon | Vysshaya Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Khatlon score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Parvoz score 0.8 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khatlon | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Parvoz | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Khatlon sit 8th in Vysshaya Liga (18 points from 14 matches) and Parvoz sit 10th (12 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Khatlon | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 18 |
| 10 | Parvoz | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Khatlon vs Parvoz?
- The Footlab model makes Khatlon the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Parvoz.
- Where and when is Khatlon vs Parvoz played?
- Khatlon vs Parvoz is played on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Vaxş-Arena, in the Vysshaya Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.