Chesterfield vs Grimsby: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield, Derbyshire
The Footlab AI model makes Chesterfield the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Grimsby. The most likely score is 1-1. If Chesterfield wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,401 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chesterfield vs Grimsby?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Chesterfield (1,848) and Grimsby (1,826).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chesterfield vs Grimsby
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chesterfield
4-2-3-1- 10L. Bonis
- 20G. McEachran
- 8R. Stirk
- 24D. Markanday
- 18L. Marsh
- 31J. Randall
- 6J. Simpson
- 33R. Hutton
- 19L. Gordon
- 5K. McFadzean
- 23R. Boot
Grimsby
4-1-4-1- 39A. Cook
- 4K. Green
- 30C. Vernam
- 28F. Cartwright
- 14J. Amaluzor
- 15G. Turi
- 3J. Sweeney
- 5H. Rodgers
- 17C. McJannet
- 2M. Kacurri
- 31C. Pym
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 07:01 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chesterfield have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Grimsby have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Crawley Town(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Tranmere(home) | 4-2 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Port Vale(home) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 19, 2026 | York(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Burton Albion(home) | 0-0 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Shrewsbury(home) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Notts County(away) | 1-2 | EFL Trophy |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Chesterfield wins, 1 draw, 1 Grimsby win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | Chesterfield 2-1 Grimsby | League Two |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Grimsby 0-1 Chesterfield | League Two |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Grimsby 1-1 Chesterfield | League Two |
| Nov 12, 2024 | Chesterfield 3-2 Grimsby | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Chesterfield 2-1 Grimsby | League Two |
| Apr 2, 2022 | Chesterfield 1-4 Grimsby | National League |
Last archived meeting: Chesterfield vs Grimsby on Apr 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chesterfield score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Grimsby score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Grimsby | 1.3 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chesterfield sit 7th in League Two (15 points from 10 matches) and Grimsby sit 11th (13 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 15 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
A question about Chesterfield vs Grimsby?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chesterfield vs Grimsby?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chesterfield the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Grimsby.
- Where and when is Chesterfield vs Grimsby played?
- Chesterfield vs Grimsby is played on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at SMH Group Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.