Bristol Rovers vs Accrington ST: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Memorial Stadium, Bristol, Gloucestershire
The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Accrington ST. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bristol Rovers vs Accrington ST?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Bristol Rovers (1,758) and Accrington ST (1,676).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bristol Rovers have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Accrington ST have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 5-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | York(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Exeter City(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bury(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bristol Rovers win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Accrington ST win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Bristol Rovers 2-0 Accrington ST | League Two |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Accrington ST 3-1 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Jan 14, 2023 | Accrington ST 2-0 Bristol Rovers | League One |
| Sep 24, 2022 | Bristol Rovers 0-1 Accrington ST | League One |
| Mar 9, 2021 | Bristol Rovers 4-1 Accrington ST | League One |
| Feb 2, 2021 | Accrington ST 6-1 Bristol Rovers | League One |
Last archived meeting: Bristol Rovers vs Accrington ST on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bristol Rovers score 2.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Accrington ST score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Accrington ST | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bristol Rovers sit 10th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Accrington ST sit 19th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 19 | Accrington ST | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bristol Rovers vs Accrington ST?
- The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Accrington ST.
- Where and when is Bristol Rovers vs Accrington ST played?
- Bristol Rovers vs Accrington ST is played on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Memorial Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.