Shrewsbury vs Port Vale: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Croud Meadow, Shrewsbury, Shropshire
The Footlab model makes Port Vale the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Shrewsbury. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shrewsbury vs Port Vale?
Port Vale starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (1,786 vs 1,644).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shrewsbury have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Port Vale have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Barnet(home) | 1-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Salford City(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Hereford(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tranmere(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oldham(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Blackpool(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Real Murcia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Shrewsbury win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Port Vale win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024 | Port Vale 1-2 Shrewsbury | League One |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Shrewsbury 2-1 Port Vale | League One |
| Feb 11, 2023 | Shrewsbury 3-2 Port Vale | League One |
| Sep 20, 2022 | Shrewsbury 0-4 Port Vale | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Port Vale 2-1 Shrewsbury | League One |
| Sep 3, 2019 | Port Vale 2-1 Shrewsbury | EFL Trophy |
Last archived meeting: Port Vale vs Shrewsbury on Mar 9, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Shrewsbury score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Port Vale score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Port Vale | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shrewsbury sit 24th in League Two (0 points from 2 matches) and Port Vale sit 20th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Port Vale | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 24 | Shrewsbury | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shrewsbury vs Port Vale?
- The Footlab model makes Port Vale the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Shrewsbury.
- Where and when is Shrewsbury vs Port Vale played?
- Shrewsbury vs Port Vale is played on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Croud Meadow, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.