Barra Mansa vs Serra Macaense: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Group Stage - 9Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Leão do Sul, Barra Mansa, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab AI model makes Serra Macaense the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Barra Mansa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Serra Macaense wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barra Mansa vs Serra Macaense?
On Elo ratings, Barra Mansa has 1,434 points and Serra Macaense 1,525.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Barra Mansa vs Serra Macaense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Barra Mansa
Not enough data to predict the Barra Mansa lineup.
Serra Macaense
Not enough data to predict the Serra Macaense lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 06:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barra Mansa have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Serra Macaense have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Santa Cruz RJ(away) | 0-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Cardoso Moreira(home) | 0-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Rio de Janeiro(away) | 0-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Búzios(home) | 1-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paduano(away) | 2-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | SE Belford Roxo(away) | 1-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Santa Cruz RJ(home) | 3-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Cardoso Moreira(away) | 3-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Rio de Janeiro(home) | 2-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Búzios(away) | 2-0 | Carioca B2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Barra Mansa win, 1 draw, 0 Serra Macaense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2025 | Barra Mansa 1-1 Serra Macaense | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 14, 2024 | Serra Macaense 0-1 Barra Mansa | Carioca B2 |
Last archived meeting: Barra Mansa vs Serra Macaense on Oct 5, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Barra Mansa score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Serra Macaense score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barra Mansa | 1.1 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Serra Macaense | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barra Mansa sit 10th in Carioca B2 (7 points from 7 matches) and Serra Macaense sit 4th (14 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Serra Macaense | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 14 |
| 10 | Barra Mansa | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 7 |
A question about Barra Mansa vs Serra Macaense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barra Mansa vs Serra Macaense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Serra Macaense the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Barra Mansa.
- Where and when is Barra Mansa vs Serra Macaense played?
- Barra Mansa vs Serra Macaense is played on October 18, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Leão do Sul, in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.