Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern München played?

Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern München is played on May 15, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern München: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 15, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayern München

The Footlab model makes Bayern München the favourite at 49%, against 21% for a draw and 30% for Bayer Leverkusen. The most likely score is 1-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern München?

Bayern München starts as the favourite with a 242-point Elo edge (2,524 vs 2,282).

Bayer Leverkusen win30 %

Draw21 %

Bayern München win49 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayer Leverkusen have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Bayern München have 11, 2 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayer Leverkusen
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	SV Wehen(away)	4-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Newcastle(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 12, 2026	Nottingham Forest(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Sevilla(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Rot-Weiß Essen(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

Bayern München
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Borussia Dortmund(away)	2-1	Super Cup
Aug 18, 2026	1. FC Heidenheim(away)	4-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	RB Leipzig(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 7, 2026	Aston Villa(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 4, 2026	Jeju United FC(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Bayer Leverkusen win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Bayern München win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 22, 2026	Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 Bayern München	DFB Pokal
Mar 14, 2026	Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Bayern München	Bundesliga
Nov 1, 2025	Bayern München 3-0 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Mar 11, 2025	Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 Bayern München	UEFA Champions League
Mar 5, 2025	Bayern München 3-0 Bayer Leverkusen	UEFA Champions League
Feb 15, 2025	Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 Bayern München	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern München on Apr 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bayer Leverkusen score 2.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Bayern München score 2.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bayer Leverkusen	2.4	1.0	5	9/15	12/15
Bayern München	2.7	1.5	3	12/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayer Leverkusen sit 6th in Bundesliga (59 points from 34 matches) and Bayern München sit 1st (89 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern München	34	28	5	1	122	36	89
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68	47	59

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern München?: The Footlab model makes Bayern München the favourite at 49%, against 21% for a draw and 30% for Bayer Leverkusen.
Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern München played?: Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern München is played on May 15, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.