Where and when is VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig played?

VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig is played on May 15, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at MHPArena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 15, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)MHPArena, Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart

RB Leipzig

The Footlab model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 51%, against 22% for a draw and 27% for RB Leipzig. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?

A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate VfB Stuttgart (2,250) and RB Leipzig (2,209).

VfB Stuttgart win51 %

Draw22 %

RB Leipzig win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, VfB Stuttgart have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; RB Leipzig have 10, 0 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

VfB Stuttgart
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Hansa Rostock(away)	4-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Fulham(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Everton(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Paris FC(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Kickers Offenbach(away)	8-1	Friendlies Clubs

RB Leipzig
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Eintracht Trier(away)	6-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bayern München(away)	1-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Leeds(away)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Verl(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	FC Ingolstadt 04(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 VfB Stuttgart win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 RB Leipzig win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 15, 2026	VfB Stuttgart 1-0 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga
Nov 1, 2025	RB Leipzig 3-1 VfB Stuttgart	Bundesliga
May 17, 2025	RB Leipzig 2-3 VfB Stuttgart	Bundesliga
Apr 2, 2025	VfB Stuttgart 3-1 RB Leipzig	DFB Pokal
Jan 15, 2025	VfB Stuttgart 2-1 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga
Jan 27, 2024	VfB Stuttgart 5-2 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig on Mar 15, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

VfB Stuttgart score 3.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; RB Leipzig score 2.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
VfB Stuttgart	3.1	1.3	4	9/15	13/15
RB Leipzig	2.2	1.4	5	9/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

VfB Stuttgart sit 4th in Bundesliga (62 points from 34 matches) and RB Leipzig sit 3rd (65 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	RB Leipzig	34	20	5	9	66	47	65
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	18	8	8	71	49	62

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?: The Footlab model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 51%, against 22% for a draw and 27% for RB Leipzig.
Where and when is VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig played?: VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig is played on May 15, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at MHPArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.