Where and when is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 played?

1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on May 15, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at PreZero Arena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 15, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

1899 Hoffenheim

FSV Mainz 05

The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for 1899 Hoffenheim. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05?

A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate 1899 Hoffenheim (2,161) and FSV Mainz 05 (2,155).

1899 Hoffenheim win38 %

Draw24 %

FSV Mainz 05 win38 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, 1899 Hoffenheim have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 have 9, 2 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

1899 Hoffenheim
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Erzgebirge Aue(away)	4-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 16, 2026	Tottenham(away)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Karlsruher SC(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Holstein Kiel(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	SGV Freiberg(away)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

FSV Mainz 05
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Krieschow(away)	9-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bournemouth(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Paris FC(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Udinese(away)	3-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 31, 2026	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 1899 Hoffenheim win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 FSV Mainz 05 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 4, 2026	1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Nov 21, 2025	FSV Mainz 05 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim	Bundesliga
Apr 12, 2025	1899 Hoffenheim 2-0 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Dec 1, 2024	FSV Mainz 05 2-0 1899 Hoffenheim	Bundesliga
Apr 13, 2024	FSV Mainz 05 4-1 1899 Hoffenheim	Bundesliga
Nov 26, 2023	1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 on Apr 4, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

1899 Hoffenheim score 1.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
1899 Hoffenheim	1.9	1.9	4	8/15	13/15
FSV Mainz 05	3.0	1.3	6	7/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

1899 Hoffenheim sit 5th in Bundesliga (61 points from 34 matches) and FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th (40 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	1899 Hoffenheim	34	18	7	9	65	52	61
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	10	10	14	44	53	40

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05?: The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where and when is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 played?: 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on May 15, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at PreZero Arena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.