Where and when is Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg played?

Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg is played on May 15, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 15, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SV

SC Freiburg

The Footlab model makes SC Freiburg the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg?

SC Freiburg starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (2,192 vs 2,071).

Hamburger SV win34 %

Draw25 %

SC Freiburg win42 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hamburger SV have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; SC Freiburg have 9, 1 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Hamburger SV
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Verl(away)	3-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Toulouse(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Lille(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Everton(home)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Rapid Vienna(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

SC Freiburg
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Fortuna Düsseldorf(away)	5-1	DFB Pokal
Aug 20, 2026	Motherwell(away)	3-1	UEFA Europa Conference League
Aug 15, 2026	Crystal Palace(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Strasbourg(home)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 24, 2026	Derby(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Hamburger SV win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 SC Freiburg win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Hamburger SV 3-2 SC Freiburg	Bundesliga
Jan 10, 2026	SC Freiburg 2-1 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Oct 30, 2024	SC Freiburg 2-1 Hamburger SV	DFB Pokal
Jan 13, 2023	SC Freiburg 6-2 Hamburger SV	Friendlies Clubs
Apr 19, 2022	Hamburger SV 1-3 SC Freiburg	DFB Pokal
Apr 21, 2018	Hamburger SV 1-0 SC Freiburg	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg on May 10, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Hamburger SV score 1.6 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; SC Freiburg score 2.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV	1.6	1.8	1	13/15	12/15
SC Freiburg	2.2	1.5	2	11/15	13/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Hamburger SV sit 13th in Bundesliga (38 points from 34 matches) and SC Freiburg sit 7th (47 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	SC Freiburg	34	13	8	13	51	57	47
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	40	54	38

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg?: The Footlab model makes SC Freiburg the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg played?: Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg is played on May 15, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.