Match

Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 15, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SVSC Freiburg

The Footlab AI model makes SC Freiburg the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 1-1. If SC Freiburg wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,473 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg?

SC Freiburg starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (2,217 vs 2,087).

35%25%40%
Hamburger SV winDrawSC Freiburg win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Hamburger SV

3-5-2
  1. 20Fábio Vieira
  2. 15Y. Poulsen
  1. 3D. Møller Wolfe
  2. 5M. Adeline
  3. 28M. Muheim
  4. 4B. Nadir
  5. 7Z. El Ouahdi
  1. 33S. Bornauw
  2. 17W. Omari
  3. 24N. Capaldo
  1. 1Daniel Heuer Fernandes

SC Freiburg

4-2-3-1
  1. 7D. Scherhant
  1. 8M. Eggestein
  2. 19J. Beste
  3. 6P. Osterhage
  4. 16Y. Engelhardt
  5. 42K. Goto
  1. 28M. Ginter
  2. 33J. Makengo
  3. 3P. Lienhart
  4. 29P. Treu
  1. 1M. Backhaus

Computed on October 25, 2026 at 07:03 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hamburger SV have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; SC Freiburg have 11, 1 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Hamburger SV
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 24, 2026SC Paderborn 07(away)0-1Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2026VfB Stuttgart(home)1-0Bundesliga
Oct 10, 20261899 Hoffenheim(away)3-2Bundesliga
Oct 4, 2026FC Copenhagen(home)2-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 20261. FC Köln(home)2-1Bundesliga
SC Freiburg
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 25, 2026Bayern München(home)1-3Bundesliga
Oct 22, 2026Monaco(away)0-3UEFA Europa Conference League
Oct 18, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(away)1-2Bundesliga
Oct 15, 2026FK Jablonec(home)3-2UEFA Europa Conference League
Oct 11, 2026FC Schalke 04(home)2-1Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Hamburger SV wins, 0 draws, 4 SC Freiburg wins.

DateScoreCompetition
May 10, 2026Hamburger SV 3-2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Jan 10, 2026SC Freiburg 2-1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Oct 30, 2024SC Freiburg 2-1 Hamburger SVDFB Pokal
Jan 13, 2023SC Freiburg 6-2 Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs
Apr 19, 2022Hamburger SV 1-3 SC FreiburgDFB Pokal
Apr 21, 2018Hamburger SV 1-0 SC FreiburgBundesliga

Last archived meeting: Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg on May 10, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Hamburger SV score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; SC Freiburg score 2.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV1.51.838/1510/15
SC Freiburg2.71.3410/1513/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Hamburger SV sit 11th in Bundesliga (9 points from 7 matches) and SC Freiburg sit 3rd (13 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3SC Freiburg641115613
11Hamburger SV73046169

A question about Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg?
The Footlab AI model makes SC Freiburg the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg played?
Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg is played on May 15, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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