Match

Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Allianz Arena, München

Bayern MünchenFSV Mainz 05

The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 72%, against 16% for a draw and 12% for FSV Mainz 05. The most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.8% of the 3,886 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 30, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05?

Bayern München is a heavy favourite: 2,544 Elo points against 2,147, a 397-point gap.

72%16%12%
Bayern München winDrawFSV Mainz 05 win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Bayern München

4-2-3-1
  1. 9H. Kane
  1. 17M. Olise
  2. 27K. Laimer
  3. 8T. Bischof
  4. 7S. Gnabry
  5. 42L. Karl
  1. 11N. Brown
  2. 44J. Stanišić
  3. 2D. Upamecano
  4. 4J. Tah
  1. 40J. Urbig

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2
  1. 9P. Tietz
  2. 23S. Becker
  1. 2P. Mwene
  2. 6K. Sano
  3. 7Lee Jae-Sung
  4. 10N. Amiri
  5. 19A. Caci
  1. 4S. Posch
  2. 48K. Potulski
  3. 21D. da Costa
  1. 1A. Schwolow

Computed on October 30, 2026 at 02:53 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayern München have 11 wins, 4 draws and 0 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 have 9, 2 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayern München
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 28, 20261. FC Magdeburg(home)6-1DFB Pokal
Oct 25, 2026SC Freiburg(away)3-1Bundesliga
Oct 21, 2026Arsenal(home)2-2UEFA Champions League
Oct 17, 2026RB Leipzig(home)6-1Bundesliga
Oct 13, 2026Viking(away)3-3UEFA Champions League
FSV Mainz 05
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 27, 2026VfL Bochum(away)0-2DFB Pokal
Oct 24, 2026Werder Bremen(home)2-3Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2026FC Schalke 04(away)1-0Bundesliga
Oct 10, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(home)3-4Bundesliga
Oct 3, 2026Waldhof Mannheim(away)3-0Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bayern München wins, 1 draw, 1 FSV Mainz 05 win.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 25, 2026FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
Dec 14, 2025Bayern München 2-2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Apr 26, 2025Bayern München 3-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Dec 14, 2024FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
Oct 30, 2024FSV Mainz 05 0-4 Bayern MünchenDFB Pokal
Mar 9, 2024Bayern München 8-1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München on Apr 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bayern München score 3.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 score 2.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Bayern München3.61.1312/1514/15
FSV Mainz 052.71.386/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayern München sit 1st in Bundesliga (17 points from 7 matches) and FSV Mainz 05 sit 7th (10 points from 7 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Bayern München752025617
7FSV Mainz 057313161310

A question about Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05?
The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 72%, against 16% for a draw and 12% for FSV Mainz 05.
Where and when is Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05 played?
Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on March 13, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Allianz Arena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Bayern München and FSV Mainz 05

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