Derio vs Sodupe: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 32Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo, Derio
The Footlab AI model makes Derio the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Sodupe. The most likely score is 1-1. If Derio wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,449 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derio vs Sodupe?
Derio starts as the favourite with a 137-point Elo edge (1,807 vs 1,670).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derio vs Sodupe
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derio
Not enough data to predict the Derio lineup.
Sodupe
4-3-3- EEkaitz Azkuenaga Astorkiza
- MMarkel Vegas Olano
- AAnder Garmendia Alonso
- EErlantz Rementería
- IIker Mota Arana
- GGorka Olazabal Román
- AAnder Egileor
- RRubén Salado Góngora
- JJoseba Orbegozo
- DDaniel Jiménez
- MMikel Fuente
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 04:39 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derio have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Sodupe have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 3-5 | Copa Federacion |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Touring(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(away) | 1-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(home) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Amurrio Club(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Derio score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sodupe score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derio | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| Sodupe | 1.3 | 1.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derio sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (12 points from 6 matches) and Sodupe sit 10th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derio | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Sodupe | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 8 |
A question about Derio vs Sodupe?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derio vs Sodupe?
- The Footlab AI model makes Derio the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Sodupe.
- Where and when is Derio vs Sodupe played?
- Derio vs Sodupe is played on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.