Match

Benfica vs Celtic: prediction and stats

UEFA Europa LeagueLeague Stage - 2Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa

BenficaCeltic

The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 80%, against 14% for a draw and 6% for Celtic. The most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Benfica vs Celtic?

Benfica is a heavy favourite: 2,466 Elo points against 2,117, a 349-point gap.

80%14%6%
Benfica winDrawCeltic win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Benfica vs Celtic

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Benfica

4-2-3-1
  1. 14V. Pavlidis
  1. 10H. Sudakov
  2. 36João Palhinha
  3. 8F. Aursnes
  4. 27Rafa
  5. 25G. Prestianni
  1. 44Tomás Araújo
  2. 2C. Lenglet
  3. 26S. Dahl
  4. 58Daniel Banjaqui
  1. 24Samuel Soares

Celtic

4-2-3-1
  1. 11C. Durán
  1. 42C. McGregor
  2. 22M. Baur
  3. 23H. Hassan
  4. 8B. Nygren
  5. 18O. Sørensen
  1. 51Colby Donovan
  2. 5L. Scales
  3. 20C. Carter-Vickers
  4. 63K. Tierney
  1. 1V. Sinisalo

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 04:50 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Celtic have 8, 2 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Benfica
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 20, 2026FC Porto(away)1-3Primeira Liga
Sep 16, 2026AC Milan(away)2-0UEFA Europa League
Sep 13, 2026GIL Vicente(home)3-1Primeira Liga
Sep 9, 2026Moreirense(away)4-0Primeira Liga
Sep 5, 2026Maritimo(away)3-0Primeira Liga
Celtic
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 20, 2026Rangers(home)0-1Premiership
Sep 17, 2026Ferencvarosi TC(home)1-3UEFA Europa League
Sep 13, 2026Rangers(away)0-3League Cup
Sep 9, 2026ST Johnstone(away)1-0Premiership
Sep 5, 2026ST Mirren(away)2-1Premiership

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Benfica win, 1 draw, 0 Celtic wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Nov 20, 2012Benfica 2-1 CelticUEFA Champions League
Sep 19, 2012Celtic 0-0 BenficaUEFA Champions League

Last archived meeting: Benfica vs Celtic on Nov 20, 2012

How many goals should we expect?

Benfica score 3.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Celtic score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Benfica3.20.9510/1513/15
Celtic1.81.558/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Benfica sit 7th in UEFA Europa League (3 points from 1 match) and Celtic sit 28th (0 points from 1 match).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7Benfica1100203
28Celtic1001130

A question about Benfica vs Celtic?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Benfica vs Celtic?
The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 80%, against 14% for a draw and 6% for Celtic.
Where and when is Benfica vs Celtic played?
Benfica vs Celtic is played on October 15, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), in the UEFA Europa League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Benfica and Celtic

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