Benfica vs FC Porto: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 24Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa
The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for FC Porto. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benfica vs FC Porto?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Benfica (2,358) and FC Porto (2,356).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; FC Porto have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aarhus(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 7-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 6-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-0 | Super Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Benfica win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 FC Porto win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Benfica 2-2 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 14, 2026 | FC Porto 1-0 Benfica | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 5, 2025 | FC Porto 0-0 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 6, 2025 | FC Porto 1-4 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Benfica 4-1 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 3, 2024 | FC Porto 5-0 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Benfica score 3.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; FC Porto score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 3.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| FC Porto | 1.5 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Benfica sit 7th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and FC Porto sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benfica vs FC Porto?
- The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for FC Porto.
- Where and when is Benfica vs FC Porto played?
- Benfica vs FC Porto is played on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.