Moreirense vs Guimaraes: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 24Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
The Footlab AI model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Moreirense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guimaraes wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,793 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moreirense vs Guimaraes?
A very open match: only 63 Elo points separate Moreirense (2,049) and Guimaraes (2,112).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Moreirense vs Guimaraes
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Moreirense
4-2-3-1- 79L. Vonić
- 23N. John
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 65Guilherme Liberato
- 10Kiko Bondoso
- 19Tiago Andrade
- 66Gilberto Batista
- 27Kiko
- 26Maracás
- 76Dinis Pinto
- 13André Ferreira
Guimaraes
4-2-3-1- 9A. Jakupovic
- 44L. Doucet
- 7O. Camara
- 20Samu
- 8Gonçalo Nogueira
- 17Miguel Nogueira
- 13João Mendes
- 28Thiago Balieiro
- 23T. Strata
- 21T. Borevković
- 48O. Zych
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 09:31 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moreirense have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Guimaraes have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | AVS(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 9, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Recreativa de Lamelas(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Moreirense win, 2 draws, 3 Guimaraes wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guimaraes 1-1 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Guimaraes 1-0 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Moreirense 2-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Moreirense 2-2 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Guimaraes 1-0 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Guimaraes 1-0 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Guimaraes vs Moreirense on Sep 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Moreirense score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Guimaraes score 0.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Guimaraes | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moreirense sit 12th in Primeira Liga (8 points from 8 matches) and Guimaraes sit 15th (5 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 8 |
| 15 | Guimaraes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Moreirense vs Guimaraes?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moreirense vs Guimaraes?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Moreirense.
- Where and when is Moreirense vs Guimaraes played?
- Moreirense vs Guimaraes is played on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.