Maritimo vs Guimaraes: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Marítimo, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab AI model makes Maritimo the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Guimaraes. The most likely score is 1-1. If Maritimo wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,390 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maritimo vs Guimaraes?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Maritimo (2,062) and Guimaraes (2,148).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Maritimo vs Guimaraes
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Maritimo
4-2-3-1- 17Adrián Butzke
- 14Raphael Guzzo
- 10Martín Tejón
- 8M. Dominguez
- 18V. Danilović
- 6Rodrigo Andrade
- 2Igor Julião
- 23Paulo Henrique
- 44Romain Correia
- 22G. Szalai
- 30Fran Vieites
Guimaraes
4-2-3-1- 9A. Jakupovic
- 44L. Doucet
- 7O. Camara
- 20Samu
- 8Gonçalo Nogueira
- 17Miguel Nogueira
- 13João Mendes
- 28Thiago Balieiro
- 23T. Strata
- 21T. Borevković
- 48O. Zych
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 12:18 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maritimo have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Guimaraes have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Maritimo wins, 1 draw, 5 Guimaraes wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2023 | Maritimo 1-2 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Guimaraes 1-0 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 13, 2022 | Maritimo 0-1 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 22, 2021 | Guimaraes 2-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| May 16, 2021 | Maritimo 0-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 31, 2021 | Guimaraes 1-0 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Maritimo vs Guimaraes on Apr 29, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Maritimo score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Guimaraes score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Guimaraes | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maritimo sit 11th in Primeira Liga (8 points from 8 matches) and Guimaraes sit 15th (5 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 8 |
| 15 | Guimaraes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Maritimo vs Guimaraes?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maritimo vs Guimaraes?
- The Footlab AI model makes Maritimo the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Guimaraes.
- Where and when is Maritimo vs Guimaraes played?
- Maritimo vs Guimaraes is played on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Marítimo, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.