Arouca vs Alverca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
The Footlab AI model makes Alverca the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Arouca. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alverca wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,390 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arouca vs Alverca?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Arouca (2,156) and Alverca (2,153).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arouca vs Alverca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 10Pablo Gozálbez
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
Alverca
3-4-3- 22Figueiredo
- 10Chiquinho
- 19D. Camara
- 55Francisco Chissumba
- 6D. Gui
- 35Rayan
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
- 12I. James
- 21Sergi Gómez
- 14S. Baseya
- 31Matheus Mendes
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 03:10 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arouca have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Alverca have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 4-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nacional(away) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Arouca win, 0 draws, 1 Alverca win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Alverca 2-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Arouca 1-0 Alverca | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Alverca score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Alverca | 1.3 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arouca sit 5th in Primeira Liga (14 points from 8 matches) and Alverca sit 8th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
A question about Arouca vs Alverca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Alverca?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alverca the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Arouca.
- Where and when is Arouca vs Alverca played?
- Arouca vs Alverca is played on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.