Santa Clara vs Benfica: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Santa Clara. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Benfica starts as the favourite with a 299-point Elo edge (2,358 vs 2,059).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santa Clara have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Benfica have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aarhus(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 7-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 6-1 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Santa Clara win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Benfica win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Benfica 1-1 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Santa Clara 0-1 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Benfica 3-0 Santa Clara | Taça da Liga |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Benfica 4-1 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| May 27, 2023 | Benfica 3-0 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Santa Clara vs Benfica on Feb 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santa Clara score 1.6 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica score 3.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 1.6 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Benfica | 3.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santa Clara sit 3rd in Primeira Liga (7 points from 3 matches) and Benfica sit 6th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santa Clara vs Benfica?
- The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Santa Clara.
- Where and when is Santa Clara vs Benfica played?
- Santa Clara vs Benfica is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio de São Miguel, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.