Bergantiños vs Sestao River: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio As Eiroas, Carballo
The Footlab model makes Bergantiños the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Sestao River. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bergantiños vs Sestao River?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Bergantiños (1,882) and Sestao River (1,892).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bergantiños have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Sestao River have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Sámano(away) | 5-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | UD Ourense(home) | 1-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Real Oviedo II(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sarriana(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Real Valladolid II(away) | 4-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Athletic Club II(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Utebo(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Amorebieta(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Bergantiños score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Sestao River score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bergantiños | 1.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Sestao River | 1.0 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bergantiños | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 37 | 48 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bergantiños vs Sestao River?
- The Footlab model makes Bergantiños the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Sestao River.
- Where and when is Bergantiños vs Sestao River played?
- Bergantiños vs Sestao River is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio As Eiroas, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.