Birmingham vs Derby: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 31Kick-off on February 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)St Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham
The Footlab AI model makes Birmingham the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1. If Birmingham wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Birmingham vs Derby?
On Elo ratings, Birmingham has 1,978 points and Derby 1,879.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Birmingham vs Derby
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Birmingham
4-2-3-1- 9A. Priske
- 24T. Iwata
- 28J. Stansfield
- 17L. Millar
- 14J. Solis
- 7Carlos Vicente
- 26B. Osayi-Samuel
- 4C. Klarer
- 5P. Neumann
- 20A. Cochrane
- 1J. Beadle
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 20A. Mowatt
- 4D. Ozoh
- 16M. Fuseini
- 6S. Langås
- 28D. Sanderson
- 26R. Hedges
- 23J. Ward
- 31J. Vickers
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 09:44 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Birmingham have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Derby have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Preston(home) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Middlesbrough(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Birmingham wins, 2 draws, 1 Derby win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Derby 1-2 Birmingham | Championship |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Derby 1-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Birmingham 1-1 Derby | Championship |
| Jan 30, 2022 | Derby 2-2 Birmingham | Championship |
| Sep 10, 2021 | Birmingham 2-0 Derby | Championship |
| Apr 24, 2021 | Derby 1-2 Birmingham | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Birmingham score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Derby score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Derby | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Birmingham sit 3rd in Championship (17 points from 10 matches) and Derby sit 23rd (6 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 17 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 6 |
A question about Birmingham vs Derby?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Birmingham vs Derby?
- The Footlab AI model makes Birmingham the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Derby.
- Where and when is Birmingham vs Derby played?
- Birmingham vs Derby is played on February 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at St Andrew's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.