Derby vs Birmingham: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Pride Park Stadium, Derby
The Footlab model makes Derby the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Birmingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derby vs Birmingham?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Derby (1,862) and Birmingham (1,914).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derby have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Birmingham have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Charlton(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Mansfield Town(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Derby win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Birmingham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Derby 1-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Birmingham 1-1 Derby | Championship |
| Jan 30, 2022 | Derby 2-2 Birmingham | Championship |
| Sep 10, 2021 | Birmingham 2-0 Derby | Championship |
| Apr 24, 2021 | Derby 1-2 Birmingham | Championship |
| Dec 29, 2020 | Birmingham 0-4 Derby | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Derby score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Birmingham score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Birmingham | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derby sit 17th in Championship (0 points from 1 matches) and Birmingham sit 15th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derby vs Birmingham?
- The Footlab model makes Derby the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Birmingham.
- Where and when is Derby vs Birmingham played?
- Derby vs Birmingham is played on September 12, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Pride Park Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.