Botafogo vs Bahia: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 37Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab AI model makes Botafogo the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Bahia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Botafogo wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botafogo vs Bahia?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Botafogo (1,792) and Bahia (1,864).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Botafogo vs Bahia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Botafogo
4-2-3-1- 19Arthur Cabral
- 8Danilo Santos
- 6C. Medina
- 11Matheus Martins
- 22H. Ziyech
- 75Huguinho
- 2Vitinho
- 13Alex Telles
- 5N. Ferraresi
- 21Marçal
- 12Gabriel Batista
Bahia
4-3-3- 9A. Véliz
- 16Erick Pulga
- 99C. Olivera
- 11Rodrigo Nestor
- 6Jean Lucas
- 5N. Acevedo
- 46Luciano Juba
- 33David Duarte
- 44Marcos Victor
- 4Kanu
- 1Ronaldo
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:04 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botafogo have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Bahia have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Coritiba(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Mirassol(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Gremio(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Palmeiras(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Remo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 3-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Botafogo win, 2 draws, 3 Bahia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Bahia 2-1 Botafogo | Serie A |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Botafogo 2-1 Bahia | Serie A |
| May 4, 2025 | Bahia 1-0 Botafogo | Serie A |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Bahia 0-0 Botafogo | Serie A |
| Aug 7, 2024 | Bahia 1-0 Botafogo | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jul 31, 2024 | Botafogo 1-1 Bahia | Copa Do Brasil |
How many goals should we expect?
Botafogo score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Bahia score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Bahia | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botafogo sit 13th in Serie A (36 points from 30 matches) and Bahia sit 5th (49 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 44 | 36 | 49 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 43 | 48 | 36 |
A question about Botafogo vs Bahia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botafogo vs Bahia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Botafogo the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Bahia.
- Where and when is Botafogo vs Bahia played?
- Botafogo vs Bahia is played on November 29, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nilton Santos, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.