Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 37Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Mirassol the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Atletico Paranaense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate Mirassol (1,921) and Atletico Paranaense (1,997).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mirassol have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Atletico Paranaense have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Santos(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | LDU de Quito(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 1-5 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | LDU de Quito(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Santos(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 0-4 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Vitoria(home) | 2-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Mirassol win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Atletico Paranaense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Mirassol | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol on May 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mirassol score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Paranaense score 1.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Atletico Paranaense | 1.3 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mirassol sit 17th in Serie A (24 points from 23 matches) and Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd (41 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 41 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 26 | 36 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense?
- The Footlab model makes Mirassol the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Atletico Paranaense.
- Where and when is Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense played?
- Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense is played on November 29, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.