Vitoria vs Santos: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 37Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador, Bahia
The Footlab AI model makes Vitoria the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Santos. The most likely score is 1-1. If Vitoria wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitoria vs Santos?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Vitoria (1,787) and Santos (1,865).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Vitoria vs Santos
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Vitoria
4-2-3-1- 91Rene
- 33Erick
- 95Caíque
- 10Matheuzinho
- 6E. Martínez
- 12D. Tarzia
- 36Luan Cândido
- 83Jamerson
- 98Mateusinho
- 25Cacá
- 1Lucas Arcanjo
Santos
4-2-3-1- 9Gabriel Barbosa
- 28C. Oliva
- 8Gabriel Bontempo
- 48Gustavo Henrique Pereira
- 7Everton
- 32B. Rollheiser
- 23Rodinei
- 31G. Escobar
- 15Willian Arão
- 4Lucas Veríssimo
- 1Diógenes
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitoria have 4 wins, 1 draw and 10 defeats; Santos have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sao Paulo(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(home) | 4-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Mirassol(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Gremio(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atletico-MG(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Sao Paulo(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Remo(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Atletico-MG(away) | 2-4 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Vitoria win, 1 draw, 4 Santos wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Santos 3-1 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Santos 0-1 Vitoria | Serie A |
| May 25, 2025 | Vitoria 0-1 Santos | Serie A |
| Oct 6, 2018 | Vitoria 0-1 Santos | Serie A |
| Jun 3, 2018 | Santos 5-2 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Oct 16, 2017 | Santos 2-2 Vitoria | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Vitoria score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Santos score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 1.0 | 1.6 | 4 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Santos | 1.5 | 1.2 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vitoria sit 12th in Serie A (36 points from 30 matches) and Santos sit 8th (42 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 46 | 45 | 42 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 44 | 36 |
A question about Vitoria vs Santos?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitoria vs Santos?
- The Footlab AI model makes Vitoria the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Santos.
- Where and when is Vitoria vs Santos played?
- Vitoria vs Santos is played on November 29, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Manoel Barradas, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.