Botev Novi Pazar vs Chernomorets Balchik: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 6Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Botev, Novi pazar
The Footlab model makes Chernomorets Balchik the favourite at 84%, against 12% for a draw and 5% for Botev Novi Pazar. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botev Novi Pazar vs Chernomorets Balchik?
Chernomorets Balchik is a heavy favourite: 1,774 Elo points against 1,286, a 488-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botev Novi Pazar have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Chernomorets Balchik have 13, 2 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fratria II(away) | 6-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Cherno more II(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(home) | 0-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Fratria II(away) | 2-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Riltzi(home) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Aksakovo(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(away) | 4-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Svetkavitsa 14(home) | 2-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(away) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Botev Novi Pazar win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Chernomorets Balchik win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar 0-4 Chernomorets Balchik | Third League - Northeast |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Chernomorets Balchik 4-0 Botev Novi Pazar | Third League - Northeast |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Botev Novi Pazar 0-3 Chernomorets Balchik | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Chernomorets Balchik 2-0 Botev Novi Pazar | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 5, 2023 | Botev Novi Pazar 0-3 Chernomorets Balchik | Third League - Northeast |
| Aug 27, 2022 | Chernomorets Balchik 6-1 Botev Novi Pazar | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Botev Novi Pazar vs Chernomorets Balchik on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Botev Novi Pazar score 1.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Chernomorets Balchik score 2.9 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Novi Pazar | 1.7 | 2.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Chernomorets Balchik | 2.9 | 0.3 | 11 | 4/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botev Novi Pazar sit 2nd in Third League - Northeast (3 points from 1 matches) and Chernomorets Balchik sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Botev Novi Pazar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Chernomorets Balchik | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botev Novi Pazar vs Chernomorets Balchik?
- The Footlab model makes Chernomorets Balchik the favourite at 84%, against 12% for a draw and 5% for Botev Novi Pazar.
- Where and when is Botev Novi Pazar vs Chernomorets Balchik played?
- Botev Novi Pazar vs Chernomorets Balchik is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Botev, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.