Olympic Varna vs Cherno more II: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 6Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Cherno more II the favourite at 58%, against 20% for a draw and 22% for Olympic Varna. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Olympic Varna vs Cherno more II?
Cherno more II starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (1,547 vs 1,405).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Olympic Varna have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Cherno more II have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo(away) | 4-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Dorostol(home) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Ludogorets III(away) | 0-8 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 9, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo(home) | 1-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ludogorets III(away) | 1-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(home) | 3-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Svetkavitsa 14(away) | 0-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 17, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(home) | 0-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Spartak Varna II(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Olympic Varna win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Cherno more II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Cherno more II 3-3 Olympic Varna | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Olympic Varna 0-2 Cherno more II | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Cherno more II vs Olympic Varna on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Olympic Varna score 1.7 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Cherno more II score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympic Varna | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Cherno more II | 1.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Olympic Varna sit 4th in Third League - Northeast (3 points from 1 matches) and Cherno more II sit 12th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Olympic Varna | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Cherno more II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Olympic Varna vs Cherno more II?
- The Footlab model makes Cherno more II the favourite at 58%, against 20% for a draw and 22% for Olympic Varna.
- Where and when is Olympic Varna vs Cherno more II played?
- Olympic Varna vs Cherno more II is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.