Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv
The Footlab model makes Botev Plovdiv the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Botev Plovdiv (1,801) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv (1,805).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botev Plovdiv have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 0-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Botev Plovdiv win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 Botev Plovdiv | First League |
| May 3, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv 0-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv 1-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Botev Plovdiv | Cup |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 Botev Plovdiv | First League |
| Jul 28, 2024 | Botev Plovdiv 2-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
Last archived meeting: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Botev Plovdiv on May 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Botev Plovdiv score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv Plovdiv score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botev Plovdiv sit 6th in First League (7 points from 5 matches) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 11th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
- The Footlab model makes Botev Plovdiv the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
- Where and when is Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv played?
- Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Hristo Botev, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.